Definition: The tendency, after learning about an event, to "second guess" or believe that one could have predicted the event in advance.

Quite Simply

  • "I knew it all along"
  • After something happens, you feel you expected that outcome.
  • Overestimating your ability to predict that something was going to happen.

Examples of Hindsight Bias

  • After you get your graded test back, you cry "I was about to put that!" when you see what the right answer is, even though you did not.
  • Historians may describe the outcome of a battle as predictable, when in reality it had been a desperate struggle
  • You find out your girlfriend is cheating on you and you tell your friends you always knew she was trouble.
  • You claim to have predicted a plot twist in a movie ("I always thought Hans was a shady jerk!")

See Also